Wednesday, November 30, 2005
EXIT STRATEGY
Here's an extended essay describing an 18-month "exit strategy" for American armed forces from Iraq by a political science professor here at Boston's own MIT. The author, Barry Posen, proposes that the US should pull its armed forces out of Iraq and that we should anticipate a civil war among the three ethnic/religious groups there -- Kurds, Sunnis and Shi'ites -- which we should "manage" to a stalemate through "over-the-horizon" military intervention and economic support.
This piece is worth reading because it does do a good job of identifying all the major factors that contribute to the inherent instability of Iraq. But it also highlights through the numerous assumptions it contains just how unpredictable any outcome of the three-way battle for control of Iraq is. I'm not sure Posen is wrong that a disengagement from the Sunni triangle has to happen. This area is functionally ungovernable and I have come to conclude that the idea of a "democracy" in that region is a pipe dream. But there is no reason that US forces would have to completely evacuate Iraq. Why not just pull back to the western desert into highly defensible positions? From there the US could provide a real and immediate threat to those who seek the worst outcomes identified by Posen, especially the establishment of an "Al Qaida state." While the on-going supply of such a bristling redoubt in the western desert would present challenges, I think those challenges could be overcome. At any rate, that's the "exit startegy" I've been advocating since before the "Mission Accomplished" stage of the war.
GB, THHotA
posted by Greg 6:35 AM
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