NEAR-TERM SCENARIOS

In the Spring of 1998 I engaged in a dialogue on the Extropians e-mail list about "near-term scenarios", i.e. projections regarding specific areas of technology and society for the period of 2000 to 2015. This is based on the projections I made in that dialogue (with some modifications growing out of some of the comments of others) and serves as a sort of futurist "time capsule" against which I can check the progress of real events as they unfold. It will be interesting to see how well I foresaw developments.

circa 2000

• Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
  • PC speed: 1 GHz -- 600 MHz
  • PC Storage: 10 Gbt hard drives common; read/write DVD drives common
  • Interfaces:
    • flat screens become common;
    • first practical consumer VR interfaces;
    • retina painters become available in some industrial applications;
    • speech input becoming more common, especially with palmtops;
    • crude VR avatars/virtual spaces available
  • Software:
    • first consumer-level remembrance agents;
    • first consumer-level personalizable full-time network spiders
  • Networks: I don't know enough to be dangerous on this, but others suggest 100 MBit - 1 GBit.
• Communication Technology:
  • cell phones the size of credit cards; a few disposable cell phones;
  • first practical consumer videophones; major consumer items (cars, houses) begin to have embedded cell communications;
  • competition in high-speed net access becomes common in major urban areas; "sat-cell" systems (Teledesic, etc.) being launched
• Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
  • evolved software networks (e.g. Cambrain project) demonstrated as impressive software toys;
  • neurochips implanted into small lab mammals with minimal effect;
  • continuing progress on nerve regeneration;
  • breakthroughs in Alzheimer disease
• Genetic Science and Technology:
  • human cloning bans enforced; first human clone announced in lab in Latin America or Asia; s
  • ynthetic genes developed for therapeutic purposes in several major human genetic disorders, testing begins;
  • primitive organ cloning (complex tissues, perhaps skin) developed in the lab
• General Medicine:
  • AIDS effectively reduced to level of non-lethal chronic disease;
  • very effective chemical treatments for coronary artery disease developed;
  • angiostatin-endostatin proves highly effective in first human trials as general anti-cancer agent;
  • continued progress in human cryopreservation techniques significantly reduces freezing damage
• Other Biology:
  • pharmaceutical ranching becomes common;
• Power Technology:
  • U.S. power market continues process of deregulation;
  • natural gas "micro-turbines" become available at the consumer level;
  • continued progress in fusion R&D
• Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology:
  • Arrays of STMs-on-a-chip for crude mechanosynthesis ("diamond weaving") demonstrated;
  • MEMs become available in some major consumer devices
• General Transportation Technology:
  • "networked cars" available at high prices;
  • competitive electro-hybrid autos begin to hit market
• Aeronautics:
  • Boeing announces plans to build a large HST;
  • resurgence of small general aviation market through application of composite materials and computer-mediated control systems (Rutan meets Gates)
• Space Technology and Development:
  • Multiple demonstration launches of small, privately-funded LEO boosters;
  • Sat-cell network launches underway;
  • NASA space station becomes operable;
  • private lunar ice lander-prospector proposed;
  • workable proposal for privatization of NASA space station;
  • work commences on second generation of private launchers and first private LEO spacecraft (tugs, shuttles)
• Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
  • increasing trends toward telecommuting;
  • continuing development of expertise consultancy in areas other than traditional professions (software, other engineering, personnel management, finance);
  • increasing privatization of investment for retirement; electronic commerce becomes ubiquitous;
  • first practical private e-cash
• Personal Lifestyles:
  • increasing de-localization of social interaction through the Internet;
  • development of second career ideal among healthy "Boomers" in their 50s;
• Law and Government:
  • first "virtual courtrooms" demonstrated;
  • first commercial applications of smart contracts;
  • continuing privatization of traditional government functions;
  • complete overhaul and simplification of the U.S. tax code complete;
  • continuing political battles over rights issues such as abortion, drugs, genetic self-control
• Art and Entertainment:
  • first widely-distributed virtual environments;
  • first consumer-level virtual environmental tools;
  • first real interactive fiction;
  • continuing human/machine artistic collaborations

circa 2005

• Computer Technology (Processing, Interface, Software, Networks):
  • PC speed: 1-4 GHz
  • First consumer-level configurable neural networks
  • PC Storage:
    • 50 Gbt hard drives common, being replaced with completely solid state devices
  • Interfaces:
    • flat screens ubiquitous;
    • consumer VR interfaces ubiquitous;
    • retina painters common at consumer level;
    • speech input ubiquitous;
    • gestural recognition becoming common;
    • VR avatars/virtual spaces common
  • Software:
    • active, autonomous agents ubiquitous;
    • coding of most applications automated
  • Networks: My ignorance becomes complete
• Communication Technology:
  • First cell-phone implants; consumer videophones ubiquitous; most consumer items (cars, houses) have embedded cell communications; all urban areas have competing high-speed net access; "sat-cell" systems (Teledesic, etc.) online
• Neuroscience/Neuromedicine/Bio-cognitive Science & Technology:
  • evolved networks operable in many consumer level applications and common in large business and scientific applications;
  • neurochips employed in effective spinal chord repair in primates;
  • perfection of nerve regeneration;
  • Alzheimer disease cured;
  • full emulation of small biological neural networks
• Genetic Science and Technology:
  • human cloning bans experience some legal challenge;
  • human clones a rare but continuing phenomenon in labs in Latin America and Asia;
  • synthetic genes commonly employed for therapeutic purposes in most major human genetic disorders,
  • organ cloning of complete human organs accomplished in the lab.
• General Medicine:
  • AIDS eradicated in the first world;
  • coronary artery disease near eradication;
  • multiple anticancer agents reduce cancer mortality drastically;
  • DNA chips ubiquitous;
  • human cryopreservation near perfection
• Other Biology:
  • genetically engineered pet dogs and cats banned;
  • radical improvements in agricultural productivity from transgenic crops
• Power Technology:
  • natural gas "micro-turbines" common in industrial and commercial applications;
  • first commercial fusion plants under construction; return of "oil shocks" as third world hydrocarbon consumption skyrockets;
  • one or more ocean thermal power plants under construction
• Manufacturing and Materials Science & Technology:
  • Arrays of STMs-on-a-chip become common manufacturing technology;
  • "smart materials" become common in aviation and automotive technology;
  • "active buildings" become norm for new construction;
  • MEMS ubiquitous in most consumer devices
• General Transportation Technology:
  • "networked cars" ubiquitous;
  • a few "intelligent freeways" begin operation in major urban areas;
  • electro-hybrid autos become common
• Aeronautics:
  • Boeing flies its HST
• Space Technology and Development:
  • Majority of launch market is private;
  • first generation manned private LEO vehicles begin operation; ISS privatized;
  • construction begins on first private, "wheel" space station somewhat after 2005;
  • private robotic ice mining and caching operations begin somewhat after 2005
• Business & Finance Technology and Practice:
  • telecommuting ubiquitous;
  • expertise consultancy becomes very common;
  • retirement plans begin complete restructuring in face of increased longevity;
  • first life insurance investment in cryonics;
  • electronic commerce becomes largest part of consumer economy;
  • private e-cash begins challenge to traditional monetary systems
• Personal Lifestyles:
  • complete de-localization of social interaction through the Internet;
  • large minority of "Boomers" entering second careers
  • "Boom Echo" generation begins to have major impact in culture and commerce
• Law and Government:
  • "virtual courtrooms" common;
  • smart contracts common;
  • privatization of traditional government functions begins to sap tax base of some frst world governments;
  • continuing political battles over rights issues such as abortion, drugs, genetic self-control;
  • development of radical luddite terrorist groups
• Art and Entertainment:
  • virtual environments become major venue for the arts;
  • consumer-level virtual environmental tools ubiquitous;
  • interactive fiction branded a "social problem" ("VR addiction");
  • human/machine artistic collaborations become ubiquitous

circa 2005 - 2015

• Computers/Media:
  • The VR Revolution is universally recognized in the first world:
  • "virtual consumption" of many "luxury items" beginning to supplant "real consumption" (i.e. why pay $250k for a real Lamborghini when $100 gets you 80% of the experience with "Lambo 2.0");
  • Design of virtual environments and highly interactive scenarios becomes the principle artistic enterprise, significantly blurring the line between the "software engineering" and "artistic" communities;
  • A large portion of business travel supplanted by virtual meetings;
  • Social interaction in virtual environments becomes ubiquitous;
  • Merging of VR into Chislenko ER "Enhanced Reality" in first world toward end of this period.
  • The AI Revolution arrives: Toward the end of this period autonomous agents become important economic actors, treated as human agents are now in law and business;
  • Industrial and product design and engineering become highly automated with the use of various species of AI assistants and agents.
• Biotechnology:
  • Toward the end of this period, using bioinformatic techniques, large parts of the dynamic metabolic pathways leading up from the now-completely-mapped human genome through actual organic expression are understood, giving rise to effective genetic therapies for a majority of pathologies;
  • Organ cloning is perfected and, toward 2015, implemented on a wide scale;
  • Nerve regeneration is mastered, making whole body transplants feasible but as yet untested;
  • Common pathologies are treated with same-day DNA chip diagnosis and gene therapy;
  • At least one first world society (the EU dominated by the greens? The US dominated by religious fundamentalists?) completely rejects advanced biomedical techniques;
  • Uploads still seem relatively remote, as emulation achieves small network level and scanning technology still unable to achieve massive fidelity.
• Industry/Materials:
  • Smart materials pervasive in high-end products;
  • Smart buildings universal for new construction in the first world;
  • Programming/control continues to be major impediment to "Drextech", limiting molecular manufacturing to centralized materials construction only;
  • Environmental degradation slows significantly as lower-impact manufacturing technologies continue to develop.
• Business/Finance:
  • Virtual consumption causes proliferation of low-capital, high-flux, small enterprises characterized by fluid agency structure;
  • "Agency management" model comes to predominate in many first-world businesses (management of human and AI agency resources);
  • Market fluidity and decreasing transaction costs cause capital fund managers to dominate industrial leadership, creating increasing tensions between "planners/builders" and "profit-seekers".
• Society/Politics:
  • Single career paradigm in first world becomes minority lifestyle;
  • Immigration pressure into the first world abates as employment opportunities for non-information workers stagnate and then decline;
  • Industrial production (even with increased automation) increasingly concentrated in second and third world as a result;
  • Fertility rates and energy consumption in the first world begin to decline as virtual consumption supplants "real" consumption;
  • "Balkanization" of culture in the first world as virtual communities cross-cut geographic boundaries;
  • Major reductions in violent crime and second and third world political tyrranies through implementation of "transparent society" techniques;
  • Conflict between privacy and transparency dominates social and political agendas in first world;
  • Development of a few Orwellian ultra-surveillance tyrannies in the second and third worlds (Iran? Iraq?);
  • A few tech-terrorist incidents spark lightning super-smart weapon responses from coordinated first-world militaries.
• Law/Government:
  • Proliferation of quasi-governmental adjudicative agencies dovetailing with continued development and spread of smart contracts (primitive PPLs);
  • Traditional state judiciary and government increasingly preoccupied with "info-torts" arising from conflict between transparency and privacy;
  • Many late 20th century NGOs (non-governmental organizations) mutate into quasi-governmental agencies (also identifiable as primitive non-territorial PPLs);
  • Some first-world governments become preoccupied with legislation and regulation of biotech, others take laissez faire approach.
• Space:
  • Human/robotics debate "resolved" as relatively small human presence is perceived as necessary for high-level management across light-speed gap, thus LEO manned station is only a way station to small human surface base managing lunar prospecting and construction of research facilities and manned orbital Mars facility is planned;
  • Large growth in telerobotic LEO service industry for telecomm sats.